How This Unusual Campaign Shattered the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Formula.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.
But the current race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.
This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.
The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.
Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.
In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!
Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short here.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.
Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements together.
Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.
The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3
Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.
Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.
Still
